“The 100 Day Dash to Election Day”—The Sunday Political Brunch August 5, 2018

Sunday, August 05, 2018
Mark Curtis, GoLocalProv Contributor

Mark Curtis
Last Sunday marked an important milestone – just 100 days until the November midterm election. This is going to be a fight to the finish for control of the U.S. Senate and House. Let’s “brunch” on some of the key races this week:

“Manchin Ads” – For those who live outside of West Virginia, you cannot believe the onslaught of ads in our U.S. Senate race, which have been almost non-stop since the May primary. It’s relentless. Ads from groups backing the Republican nominee Attorney General Patrick Morrisey have targeted Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) for his stances on immigration reform. Conversely, groups supporting Manchin have attacked Morrisey for lobbying work he and his wife did on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. It’s ugly and intense. And it’s pedal to the metal to November with no let-up in sight. The latest Real Clear Politics composite has Manchin up by 7 points, but Morrisey is a fierce competitor. Both have won state wide several times.

“He’s Back!” – Don Blankenship became something of a national media darling after his Quixotic run for the West Virginia Republican Senate nomination in May. And he’s back. The state’s Constitution Party gave Blankenship the nomination for the U.S. Senate in November. Problem is, the state has what’s known as a “sore-loser law” which aims to prevent spring primary losers from re-emerging in November as candidates on a third-party ballot. Blankenship filed with the Secretary of State, only to be rejected. Get ready for a fast and furious court fight, that could go the U.S. Supreme Court. Blankenship – who has a seemingly bottomless wallet – told me, “I will spend whatever is necessary to get my name on the ballot.”

“Trump on the Stump” – In Florida, President Trump hit the campaign trail this week with an intense rally where he endorsed Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) for governor. But DeSantis faces State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R-FL), who previously served 10 years in Congress. It’s unusual for a president to get involved in a primary race, but as we’ve seen, this is an unconventional presidency. On the other side of the aisle, is former Rep. Gwen Graham (D-FL), in the Democratic primary. Her dad, Senator Bob Graham, (D-FL) was also a two-term governor of Florida.

“WV 3” – Toss-up!” – One of the most fascinating races for the U.S. House in the nation is right here in West Virginia. The third Congressional District is an open seat after Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV) had an unsuccessful bid for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination. The prestigious Sabato Crystal Ball report had the race as “Leans Republican” but now it’s listed as a “Toss Up.” The Democratic nominee is firebrand State Senator Richard Ojeda (D-Logan), who openly endorsed and voted for Republican Presidential Nominee-turned President Donald Trump. The Republican nominee is Delegate Carol Miller (R-Cabell), the daughter of longtime U.S. Rep. Samuel Devine (R-OH). Put this in your “Top Ten” national House races.

“By the Numbers” – If you are keeping score – and the math is important – here’s where to crunch the numbers. Right now, the Republicans hold a slim 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate, with Vice President Mike Pence being the tie-breaker, if need be. In the House it’s Republicans 236, Democrats 193, with 6 net gain of vacancies. A simple majority is 218 seats, so Democrats are within striking distance.

“North, By North Dakota” – Control of the U.S. Senate may lie in a few states. Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) is hoping to earn a second term in a state that went heavily for Donald Trump in 2016. Right now, the polls show Heitkamp is in a dead-heat with three-term Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND).

“Indiana Wants Me” – Senator Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is also in a tough re-election fight, especially the home state of Vice President Mike Pence. A Gravis Poll in May 2018 had it Republican nominee Mike Braun at 47 percent, with Sen. Donnelly at 46 percent. Flip a coin folks!

“The Other Hot States” – Other states with potentially very competitive Senate races include Nevada, Montana, Arizona, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and Florida.

“Why All This Matters” – I think it’s fair to say that President Trump is the most polarizing commander-in-chief in U.S. history. Will that rally his party? Or will it rally the opposition? Stay tuned! And, yes, how people feel at home could also sway races for governor, senator and representative around the country.

What races are hot in your state or region of the country? Just click the comment

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving the state of West Virginia, and its five neighboring states.

  • Registered Voters

    Q1: Are you registered to vote in Rhode Island?

    Total 501 100%
    Yes: 501 100%
    No: 0 0%
    Don't know: 0 0%

     
  • Gender

    Q2: Are you ...
    Total
    Total: 100%
    Male: 44%
    Female: 56%

     
  • Age

    Q3: In which age group are you?

    18-24:  7%
    25-34:  16%
    35-44:  15%
    45-54:  20%
    55-64: 17%
    65+      25%

     
  • Political Party

    Q4: When it comes to voting, do you consider yourself to be affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Moderate, or Unaffiliated with a major party?

    Democrat: 38%
    Republican:14%
    Moderate: 6%
    Unaffiliated: 39%
    Don't know/Refused: 3%

     
  • Likely Voters

    Q5: Next year, in November of 2018, there will be a statewide general election for Governor and many other state offices.  How likely is it that you will vote in this election?   Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50...

     

    Definitely be voting.............................. 81%

    Probably be voting............................... 19%

    All others.............................................   0%

     
  • Top Issue

    Q6: What would you say is the number one problem facing Rhode Island that you would like the Governor to address?
     

    Taxes.................................................. .18%

    Jobs and economy.............................. 16%

    State budget.........................................11%

    Roads...................................................10%

    Education............................................  8%

    Healthcare...........................................  5%

    Corruption/Public integrity.................... 4%

    Immigration..........................................  4%

    Housing.............................................. ..2%

    Governor............................................. ..2%

    Homelessness.......................................1%

     

    Other.. ............................................... 14%

    Don’t know..........................................   6%

     
  • Direction

    Q7: In general, would you say things in Rhode Island are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
     

    Right track........................................... 19%

    Wrong track......................................... 36%

    Mixed.................................................. 45%

     
  • Optimism

    Q8: Thinking ahead several years, is your outlook about Rhode Island more optimistic or more pessimistic?   
     

    Optimistic............................................ 52%

    Pessimistic...........................................48%
     

     
  • Finances

    Q9: Over the last three years or so, has your family's financial situation improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?
     

    Changed for the better......................... 24%

    Changed for the worse......................... 33%

    Not changed at all................................ 43%

     
  • Governor

    Q10: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?

    Gina Raimondo, a Democrat

    I am sure to vote for her:  9%

    There is a good chance I will vote for her:  19%

    It is possible that I vote for her:  24%

    It is unlikely that I will vote for her:  18%

    I will never vote for her:  31%

     
  • Governor

    Q11: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?

    Matt Brown, a Democrat

    I am sure to vote for him:  4%

    There is a good chance I will vote for him:  8%

    It is possible that I vote for him:  40%

    It is unlikely that I will vote for him:  30%

    I will never vote for him:  17%
     

     
  • Governor

    Q12: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?

    Spencer Dickinson, a Democrat

    I am sure to vote for him:  3%

    There is a good chance I will vote for him:  7%

    It is possible that I vote for him:  37%

    It is unlikely that I will vote for him:  35%

    I will never vote for him:  18%

     
  • Governor

    Q13: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?

    Paul Roselli, a Democrat 

    I am sure to vote for him:  2%

    There is a good chance I will vote for him:  7%

    It is possible that I vote for him:  35%

    It is unlikely that I will vote for him:  37%

    I will never vote for him:  19%

     
  • Governor

    Q14: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?

    Allan Fung, a Republican 

    I am sure to vote for him:  7%

    There is a good chance I will vote for him:  18%

    It is possible that I vote for him:  28%

    It is unlikely that I will vote for him:  25%

    I will never vote for him:  21%

     
  • Governor

    Q15: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?

    Patricia Morgan, a Republican 

    I am sure to vote for her:  3%

    There is a good chance I will vote for her.:   9%

    It is possible that I vote for her:  32%

    It is unlikely that I will vote for her:  35%

    I will never vote for her:  21%

     
  • Governor

    Q16: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?

    Giovanni Feroce, a Republican 

    I am sure to vote for him:  2%

    There is a good chance I will vote for him:  5%

    It is possible that I vote for him:  24%

    It is unlikely that I will vote for him:  35%

    I will never vote for him:  34%

     
  • Governor

    Q17: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?

    Luis-Daniel Muñoz, an Independent

    I am sure to vote for him:  3%

    There is a good chance I will vote for him: 6%

    It is possible that I vote for him: 33%

    It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 38%

    I will never vote for him: 21%

     
  • Governor

    Q18: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?

    Joe Trillo, an Independent

    I am sure to vote for him:  1%

    There is a good chance I will vote for him:  8%

    It is possible that I vote for him:  37%

    It is unlikely that I will vote for him:  34%

    I will never vote for him:  19%

     
  • Governor

    Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?        

    Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 33%

    Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 33%

    Joe Trillo, and Independent.................. 16%

    Don't know     18%

     
  • Governor

    Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?         

    Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 39%

    Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%

    Joe Trillo, an Independent................... 19%

    Don't know ......................................... 22%

     
  • Governor

    Q21: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote? 

    Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 35%

    Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 25%

    Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 14%

    Don't know .......................................... 27%
     

     
  • Governor

    Q22: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?        

    Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 30%

    Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%

    Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 18%

    Don't know .......................................... 33%

     
  • U.S. Senate

    Q23: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Nardolillo - for whom would you vote?

    Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........... 53%

    Robert 'Bobby' Nardolillo, a Republican.. 31%

    Don't know............................................... 16%

     
  • U.S. Senate

    Q24: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Flanders - for whom would you vote?           

    Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........ 54%

    Robert Flanders, a Republican............. 32%

    Don't know.......................................... 14%

     
  • Schools

    Q25: If there was an election today, would you vote to approve or reject issuing $250 million in financing supported general obligation bonds to repair Rhode Island's deteriorating school buildings and bring them up to minimum standards called "warm, safe and dry"?

    Net: Approve...................................... 74%

    Definitely approve............................... 36%

    Probably approve................................ 38%
     

    Net: Reject......................................... 17%

    Probably reject....................................   9%

    Definitely reject....................................   7%


    Don't know..........................................   9%

     
  • PawSox

    Q26: The Rhode Island General Assembly is in the process of negotiating a $40 million public financing deal with the Pawtucket Red Sox for a new stadium, hoping to bring a vote before the House and Senate this summer.  

    In general, do you favor or oppose the use of public funds to help finance a new stadium for the Pawtucket Red Sox?
     

    Net: Favor.......................................... 33%

    Strongly favor...................................... 13%

    Somewhat favor.................................. 21%
     

    Net: Oppose....................................... 59%

    Somewhat oppose.............................. 21%

    Strongly oppose.................................. 38%
     

    Don't know..........................................   8%

     
  • Fane Tower

    Q27: The City of Providence and the state of Rhode Island are considering a proposal by New York developer Jason Fane to build a 46-story luxury residence tower in Providence, next to a public riverfront park.  The developer will invest $250 to $300 million of his own funds.  The project is called the Hope Point Tower, it would be 170-feet taller than the Superman building and would require waiving height restrictions and the use of state tax credits.

    In general, do you favor or oppose development of the Hope Point Tower?

     

    Net: Favor.......................................... 39%

    Strongly favor...................................... 13%

    Somewhat favor.................................. 27%


    Net: Oppose....................................... 50%

    Somewhat oppose.............................. 23%

    Strongly oppose.................................. 27%


    Don't know.......................................... 11%

     
  • Elorza/Traffic Cameras

    Q28: How would you rate the job that Mayor Jorge Elorza has done managing issues related to speed cameras in Providence?

    Net: Excellent/Good.......................... 26%

    Excellent.............................................   6%

    Good................................................... 20%

    Net: Fair/Poor.................................... 74%

    Fair...................................................... 29%

    Poor.................................................... 45%

     
  • Q29: Since it was launched in 2016, UHIP -- the Rhode Island program designed to improve customer service for those who receive federal benefits -- has run into significant problems, including long lines, cost overruns, lost applications, over- and under-charging of patients and families.   

    Based on what you know at this time, what percent of 
    blame for this do you assign to:
     

    Deloitte, the consulting company who
    produced the system........................... 53.3%

    Governor Gina Raimondo, who has
    been governor since the system
    launch in September 2016................... 47.1%

     
  • NIMBYism

    Q30: Presently, there are local groups opposing the development of a natural gas facility in Burrillville, solar projects in Exeter, a LNG facility in Providence and wind projects in North Kingstown. 
    Some people say that it is important for local groups to play a role in opposition 
    of projects like these that could be dangerous or harmful to citizens; 

    Others say that local groups have gone too far to the detriment of the state’s long-term energy needs. 

    Which statement comes closer to your own view?

     

    Local groups play an important role...... 46%

    Local groups have gone too far............. 31%

    Not sure................................................. 24%

     
  • Corruption

    Q31: Compared to other states, do you think there is:

    More political corruption in RI................. 63%

    Less political corruption in RI................   7%

    About the same level as other states..... 30%
     

     
  • Income

    Q32: The next question is about the total income of YOUR HOUSEHOLD for the PAST 12 MONTHS.  Please include your income PLUS the income of all members living in your household (including cohabiting partners and armed forces members living at home).  

    $50,000 or less.................................... 33%

    More $50,000 but less than $75,000..... 18%

    More $75,000 but less than $100,000... 16%

    More $100,000 but less than $150,000. 13%

    $150,000 or more................................ 10%

    Don't know/refused.............................. 10%

     
  • Ethnicity

    Q33: What particular ethnic group or nationality - such as English, French, Italian, Irish, Latino, Jewish, African American, and so forth - do you consider yourself a part of or feel closest to?  

    Net: White, Non-Hispanic..................... 82%

    Black or African American....................   6%

    Latino/Hispanic....................................   5%

    Other....................................................   7%

     

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