Ric Santurri: Primary Predictions
Wednesday, September 03, 2014
In one party dominated Rhode Island, and especially in Providence, in most years the primary is the main event, since the RI GOP historically has had trouble fielding viable candidates for most seats. This year, the primary is a warm up to what should be an interesting and competitive general election season, with viable Republican statewide candidates for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General, and former Mayor Vincent A, Cianci, an independent, giving Providence the first genuine November race for mayor since he made his (first) historic comeback in 1990. A competitive November is good for columnists, and good for television stations with ads to sell. Hopefully, a few more competitive elections will result in better governance.
Primary predictions are always a bit dicey, since polling data is scarce, but there certainly are historical trends to take into account. On the Democratic side, their primary tends to skew left, and should this Tuesday, since there is a heated Republican governor's race. In our open primary system, the massive bloc of unaffiliated RI voters may choose to vote in either primary. This year, more conservative voters, who usually vote in the Democratic primary in years when the GOP has an uncontested primary, will be voting in the GOP primary.
Normally, that would be bad news for Gina Raimondo, the most moderate of the three viable Democratic candidates for governor, but Pell and Taveras splitting the progressive vote bodes well for her. It is bad news for former treasurer Frank Caprio, who is battling left-leaning political newcomer Seth Magaziner to regain that office after a four year hiatus. Handicapping an election six days before it is always dicey, since something earth shattering could be announced about any of the candidates from now until Tuesday, but with less than a week out, here's how I see it.
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Clay Pell entering this race spelled bad news for Providence mayor Angel Taveras. In a head to head matchup with centrist Raimondo in a Democratic primary, Taveras must have loved his chances, despite the campaign funding disadvantage. In a three way race, with fellow progressive Pell righting his campaign ship after a disastrous launch, Taveras' campaign has been dead in the water. His poll numbers have been stagnant, and Raimondo's big negative television ad buy has taken the luster off Taveras' stewardship of Providence as mayor. Taveras is counting on a huge turnout of Latino voters, but Raimondo has worked hard to make some inroads on Taveras' base, scoring endorsements from many Providence Latino elected officials. Will there be enough of a plurality for Taveras with that voting bloc to make up the deficit he should see in the suburb, and in ring cities like Warwick and Cranston, where Raimondo should win? I don't think so, and I see Taveras and Pell fighting for third place.
Raimondo's well funded campaign has stayed on message, presenting the treasurer as a smart, competent, principled leader, tough enough to make hard choices, and smart enough to break the state out of its doldrums. Her campaign has had no major missteps, and Taveras' weak attempts to portray her as a Wall Street puppet have fallen flat. Maybe the opposition could have defined Gina more negatively if Pell aimed some of his millions at Raimondo. The political scion chose to stay positive, which has served Pell well enough to catch Taveras, but not well enough for him to catch Raimondo.
Democrat Governor
Raimondo 34.5%, Taveras 33%, Pell 32%, Giroux .5%
Republican Governor
Note to Republicans with gubernatorial ambitions: Pray the party doesn't endorse you. The last two GOP governors got there without the endorsement, and it looks like Barrington businessman Ken Block will prevail over the endorsed candidate, Cranston mayor Allan Fung. The Fung campaign has had one of the strangest starts in RI political history, with the announcement that Fung's tragic traffic accident at age 18 caused the death of a man changing a tire on Route 95. The campaign has been dogged by negative reports from his home city, with numerous problems in the police department. Fung's perceived strength was as a competent administrator, but the problems in Cranston have eroded that positive.
The GOP primary voter is typically very conservative (for RI standards) and neither candidate has great appeal in that regard. Both camps have tried to run right in the primary, as they should, but neither has energized that base. Block will do very well in the suburbs, and hold his own in Fung's home city and nearby Warwick. Yesterday's endorsement from 2010 GOP standard bearer John Robitaille should dispel one of Block's biggest black marks with GOP primary voters, that he “cost” the GOP the Governor's office by siphoning off likely conservative votes with his Moderate Party run. Block has run a steadier campaign, and should eek out a victory.
Republican Governor
Block 53%, Fung 47%
Providence Mayor
The question for Michael Solomon is if he can snag enough of the East Side/South Side vote that has propelled both David Cicilline and Angel Taveras to the Mayor’s office. Brett Smiley, the perceived East Side favorite, has dropped out and endorsed Jorge Elorza, although Smiley's name will still appear on the ballot. Elorza lucked out when he won second placement on the ballot after the endorsed Solomon, which should limit the votes tallied for the withdrawn Smiley.
Will Smiley's support translate to a big East Side win for Elorza? Taveras, with a similar back story, swamped his two opponents there in 2010, giving him an unbeatable lead in that race. Elorza needs to come off the East Side with at least 60 percent of the vote, and I see him doing so. Despite Solomon getting endorsement from a few local progressives, East Side voters will look at his questionable ethics history and reject his candidacy. Combine that with Elorza running strong with his base, the burgeoning Latino vote (augmented by around 4,000 newly registered voters over 2010) and that should give him enough of a lead to hold off the perceived Solomon strength with the Old Providence vote.
Democrat Providence Mayor
Elorza 49%, Solomon 47%, Smiley 2.5%, Young 1.5%
Democrat Lt. Governor
For some reason, three polished RI Politicians want to sit in this useless political graveyard office for four years. The last Lt. Governor to find higher office was Bob Weygand, who wisely bolted to run and win the open US Congress District 2 seat in 1996. The last one to win election as governor was Joe Garrahy in 1976.
Progressive Warwick state representative Frank Ferri is pitted against two moderates, Cumberland mayor Dan McKee and Secretary of State Ralph Mollis, who is being term limited out of that office. Recent polling has undecided with a solid lead in this race, at almost half the electorate. Mollis, who has been elected statewide twice, is the endorsed candidate, with his name appearing first on the ballot, is leading in polls against his two unknown opponents. Neither McKee nor Ferri seems to have done enough to move their numbers, so I see Mollis winning this ho hum race.
Democrat Lt. Governor
Mollis 38%, MeKee 32%, Ferri 30%
Secretary of State
After a eight year hiatus from a statewide run, when lost to Mollis for an open seat in 2006, Guillaume DeRamel is back as the endorsed candidate. As a first time candidate, he ran strong against the better known Mollis, losing with a respectable 47% of the vote. His opponent, former Housing Works director Nellie Gorbea, is certainly qualified, as a former Deputy Secretary of State, but her campaign has gained little traction. As in the Lt. Governor race, undecided is the clear favorite, but I see DeRamel's strength in the suburbs besting Gorbea's advantage the Latino vote.
Democrat Secretary of State
DeRamel 58% Gorbea 42%
General Treasurer
Former treasurer Frank Caprio is trying to recapture this office after his disastrous 2010 turn for governor. He faces young Seth Magaziner, whose famous father, Ira, was the architect of the failed Clinton health care initiative. Caprio's recent polling numbers have been hampered by the state beach concession contract situation of his brother David Caprio, who had to step down as chair of the statewide Democratic Party after the news broke. The more qualified Frank Caprio certainly hasn't made any friends the past five years with the progressive wing of the party, and that bloc is going to carry the inexperienced Magaziner to victory.
Democrat Secretary of State
Magaziner 54% Caprio 46%
Ric Santurri is a Providence real estate investor and broker. A graduate of the URI School of Journalism, he has been involved in RI politics for over three decades. The past few years, Ric has been keenly focused on Providence, mainly budget and tax policy, politics and elections, and quality of life issues. Feel free to send comments, tips, and info to [email protected]
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