Horowitz: The Boehner/Nentanyahu Debacle

Tuesday, March 03, 2015

Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

 

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Rob Horowitz

It must have seemed like political win-win when Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nentanyahu together decided to bypass President Obama and schedule a speech by Nentanyahu to a Joint Session of Congress on the dangers of a nuclear deal with Iran.  Boehner would win points with conservatives and Evangelical Christians; Nentanyahu would get to burnish his national security credentials --his political calling card--two weeks before the Israeli elections. And to give both these politicians the benefit of the doubt they haven’t earned, they could have also thought, that beyond the political benefits, the speech might contribute to the scuttling of a deal that they believe is in neither nation’s best interest.

Unfortunately, they greatly miscalculated, underestimating the political skills and determination of President Obama, who was never going to sit idly by and allow the traditional Presidential role in foreign policy to be hijacked. The reckless disregard shown an American President by both the House Speaker and the Israeli Prime Minister through their deliberate failure even to inform him in advance of the invitation and its acceptance did not sit well with  Democratic lawmakers, including some of Israel’s strongest supporters, and generated concerns among a sub-set of American Jewish leaders; nor did it go over well with the Israeli National Security Establishment, many members of which were angered at Nentanyahu’s willingness to risk the strong bi-partisan foundation of the relationship between the two countries for what they believe were his own narrow political purposes.

As the Prime Minister prepares to make his speech today, it is no longer a question of how much good he can do for his cause; all that now can be accomplished is limiting the damage.  As a substantive matter, some Democratic Senators who were willing to strongly oppose a nuclear deal unless it precluded even a peaceful Iranian nuclear program, and would have joined Republicans in voting for imposing even stronger sanctions have now quieted their advocacy, and in some cases, backed-off their stance due to the Prime Minister’s actions.  

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As for the politics, polls in both the United States and Israel, show pluralities opposed to the Prime Minister making this speech. It is the case that some Israeli political analysts and Nentanyahu advisors argue that despite the fact that Israelis may disagree with giving the speech, whenever the focus in on security-and not on domestic issues or accusations of personal overspending of tax dollars that have recently plagued the Prime Minister--there is still some advantage for Nentanyahu and his Likud Party.

But Nentanyahu’s actions are attracting highly credible opponents in Israel. This past Sunday, 200 former high level army and security officials, including top generals who have formed a new group, Commanders for Israel’s Security, sharply criticized Nentanyahu for pursuing the speech and for his over the top attacks on President Obama,  They argue that the Prime Minister’s maneuvers could actually embolden Iran by further isolating Israel diplomatically.   While the Prime Minister remains slightly ahead in most polls, Isaac Herzog, his main opponent, has moved to with-in 3 or 4 points.(There is not a direct vote for Prime Minister; people vote for their chosen political party and complicated coalition politics will help determine the ultimate outcome.)

Herzog is also on the attack on this issue, clearly believing it is hurting the Prime Minister.  As Herzog writes in an opinion piece published in the New York Times, “Instead of creating the false impression that our interests are allied with only one American party or interest group, we should be reaching out to all Americans — Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, hawks and doves.”

 As the AP reported, on the tarmac this past weekend before boarding his flight to the United States, Nentanyahu called the trip a "fateful and even historic mission" and said he feels like "an emissary" of the Jewish people.  The problem, however, is he is acting and looking like a win-at-any-cost politician who decided to put his own political future ahead of the prudence we expect of a statesman.  The irony, of course, is that his self-serving actions-- instead of boosting his chances of re-election--have put him in at least some jeopardy.  That is about the only satisfaction that can be derived from this debacle.  

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.

 

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