EXCLUSIVE: Poll Shows Elorza Vulnerable in Re-Election Bid for Providence Mayor
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
A new poll conducted among likely Democratic Providence voters shows that despite only one announced opponent, Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza faces significant challenges to re-election.
The poll was conducted by John Zogby Strategies — Zogby has been one of the top pollsters over the past three decades. The poll was commissioned by State Representative John Lombardi’s campaign.
Elorza defeated the late Vincent “Buddy” Cianci 53 percent to 44 percent in 2014. It was Cianci’s first loss in seven tries for Mayor, and many considered the 2014 election to be a referendum on Cianci, who died in January of 2016.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTThe poll explored a primary between the five candidates who have publicly voiced interest in running for Mayor of Providence in 2018.
In a hypothetical five-way campaign between Elorza, Lombardi, former educator Robert DeRobbio, East Side businessman and former candidate Lorne Adrain, and the only announced challenger, community activist Kobi Dennis found that Elorza only scores 36 percent of the vote.
‘If the Democratic Primary for Mayor were held today and the candidates included Lorne Adrain, Jorge Elorza, Kobi Dennis, John Lombardi, and Robert DeRobbio, who would you vote for?”
Jorge Elorza 35.9%
John Lombardi 18.3%
Kobi Dennis 8.3%
Lorne Adrain 6.5%
Robert DeRobbio 5.4%
Other 8.2%
Not Sure 17.3%
Lombardi ran for Mayor in 2010, but lost to Angel Taveras in the Providence Democratic primary. Taveras served one term before running for governor, losing to Gina Raimondo in a three-way Democratic primary. Clay Pell finished third.
“The poll was commissioned after I received so many inquiries about the city’s leadership,” said Lombardi in an interview with GoLocalProv. Lombardi exclusively shared the poll with GoLocal.
The poll also showed that Lombardi was competitive with Elorza in a one-on-one race. According to the question, “If the Democratic Primary for Mayor of Providence were held today and the candidates were just Jorge Elorza and John Lombardi, who would you vote for," the results were as follows:
Jorge Elorza 45.8%
John Lombardi 33.3%
“I was pleased with the result. The poll is a clear reference point for the 2018 election,” said Lombardi.
For Elorza, the Zogby poll is a significant warning for an incumbent.
The poll also found that it is a toss up if voters want the continuation of the Elorza administration or want new leadership.
“Generally speaking, do you think Mayor Elorza deserves to be re-elected, or do you think it is time for someone new?”
Deserves re-election 44.8%
Time for someone new 42%
For Elorza, who has campaign coffers of more than $600,000, the Zogby poll is a challenge. The poll explored Elorza’s base and the results will be a disappointment for first-term mayor.
“Will you vote for Mayor Elorza regardless of who will run against him, or not?”
Yes 26.7%
No 57.1%
Not sure 16.2%
The poll was conducted between April 4-8 and had a sampling of 424. The poll has a margin of +/- 5 percent.
His clients also include MSNBC, the New York Post, Fox News, Knight-Ridder Newspapers, Gannett News Service, Houston Chronicle, Miami Herald, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Albany Times Union, the Buffalo News, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cincinnati Post, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Toledo Blade, the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, the Syracuse Herald, and nearly every daily newspaper in New York State.
SEE GOLOCAL'S POLL CONDUCTED BY JOHN DELLA VOLPE OF HARVARD IN OCT. OF 2017
Related Slideshow: GoLocal: Benchmark Poll, October 2017
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