GoLocalProv has exclusively received copies of overnight polls for the Cianci for Mayor Committee from October 23 through October 25.
The polling data obtained by GoLocal conducted by Capitol Resources shows Vincent "Buddy" Cianci with a significant nightly tracking lead over his Democratic opponent Jorge Elorza.
According to David Ortiz, spokesperson for the Elorza campaign, their campaign does not conduct tracking. Dr. Daniel Harrop, the GOP candidate. does not do polling either.
The polling data for October 23, 24 and 25 shows the following:
October 23
Cianci 47
Elorza 33
Harrop 1
Undecided 19
October 24
Cianci 48
Elorza 33
Harrop 1
Undecided 21
October 25
Cianci 42
Elorza 22
Harrop 2
Undecided 34
The tracking polls by Cianci's firm were telephone calls placed against a database of "Super Voters" – those voters that participated in the past two Mayoral elections (2010 and 2006).
Previous polling in the Providence Mayoral race includes only two publicly reported polls.
Democratic consultant Joe Fleming unveiled polling in September for WPRI. That poll showed Cianci with a 38-32 advantage over Elorza. Harrop was supported by 6% of the vote and 21% were undecided.
Last week, Brown University reported their first poll since the spring. The Brown poll found Elorza to have a 10-point lead over Cianci.
Related Slideshow: 10 Factors - Cianci or Elorza
It is down to the final days of the race for Mayor of Providence - read the analysis of who may have the advantage to win the race.
In the Democratic primary, Council President Michael Solomon beat Elorza in most of the Latino wards of Providence. In a strange but true scenario, the first-generation Guatemalan candidate lost out to the old-school candidate of Arab decent.
Yes, Providence for all of its claimed Progressive ways is still a City of ethnic politics. Elorza must win the Latino vote.
One Southside Providence City Council member says Elorza may not win the Hispanic vote and that Cianci may have the edge.
In 2010, Angel Taveras crushed his two opponents – John Lombardi and Steven Costantino -- on the East Side. As GoLocal’s former reporter Dan McGowan posted on WPRI.com, "In the three-way Democratic primary in 2010, Angel Taveras won 73% of the vote on the East Side."
Now, if Cianci were to be able to lose Wards 1, 2 and 3 by just a 60% to 40% margin it would be difficult for Elorza to win.
Two factors: Cianci historically has done better on the East Side over the decades that folks remember and he is perceived to be someone who can get things done.
The second factor is that Cianci has the support of Ward 3 Councilman Kevin Jackson. He has a track record of electoral success and being able to deliver Mount Hope votes. Then-Speaker Gordon Fox's survived in 2012 due to Jackson’s help.
The danger for Elorza is the opinion voiced in a recent New Yorker piece about Cianci. “It’s harder to hate someone when they’re sitting right in front of you,” Tom (Runco) said. He had been in the anyone-but-Buddy camp, but he was reconsidering. “Our friends warned us not to get taken in: ‘He puts on a good show, but don’t believe a word he says.’ Well, unless you hook him up to a polygraph, I guess it’s impossible to know.”
The biggest problem for Jorge Elorza is that many of his advisors are so passionate about defining Cianci as the anti-Christ that Elorza has been unable or not allowed to define his vision for Providence.
Sometimes Elorza sounds like Angel Taveras 2.0 with a Head Start to Harvard message (same prss secretary) and other times he sounds like the “man with the plan” – a Brett Smiley lite messaging.
With just two weeks to go can Elorza not only needs to define a vision for Providence, but he also needs to create some excitement about his vision.
The biggest danger for Elorza is that this race comes down to a potholes race, i.e., who is better at fixing potholes.
One of the reasons Providence Mayor Angel Taveras could not even carry his own city of Providence was that in the proceeding 12-months, Providence residents spent their days weaving in and out of giant pot holes.
If Providence voters decide they are willing to swallow a little national embarrassment by electing Cianci to avoid annual $1,000 repair bills on their front ends, then Elorza is in trouble.
Elorza’s get out the vote on primary day performed well. Now, it is Varsity time.
Without a doubt Elorza will benefit from a coordinated campaign that is organized to drive votes for the Democratic ticket from Gina Raimondo down the ballot to Nellie Gorbea.
In contrast, Cianci will be implementing his long-standing old school machine GOTV effort.
In past history, not Dorley, not Darrigan, not Lippitt, not Annaldo, and not Jabour could compete with Cianci’s organization, but remember it has been 15 years since the Cianci machine was driven.
Clearly the public unions don’t have the impact that they did back in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. Many of the employees have moved out of the City so their voting impact is minimized.
However, Cianci swept the endorsements and those organizations – Police, Teachers, Fire and Public Employee unions. There impact will matter in direct mail, phone banks and Election Day GOTV.
One block of voters outside of the East Side firmly in Elorza’s column are the young, hipsters living in downtown, on Broadway and throughout the West End. This group wants a young, ethical leader that will help reverse many of the negative trends Providence is facing relating to unemployment and economic opportunity.
A recent New York Times story, entitled, “Where Young College Graduates Are Choosing to Live,” featured the cities that are now the destination for the young and educated – cool cities like Denver, and Portland, OR. Guess which city ranked among the worst – you guessed it, Providence.
These voters want to see Providence be on this list of the best cities for young people.
An overwhelming number of Latino voters active Catholics. Religion has a significant role in their family, their community and this year – maybe in politics.
A 2010, Law Journal article written by Elorza has opened the door about Elorza’s belief in God. The writing was first unveiled by progressive blogger Steve Ahlquist in RI Future, “Now this all sounds very much like the kind of paper an atheist might write.”
On Tuesday, Bishop of the Diocese of Providence, Thomas Tobin raised serious concerns about Elorza’s belief in God. He wrote, “Now I should emphasize that being an atheist would neither recommend nor disqualify him from being Mayor of Providence. But I wonder if an atheist mayor would be in a position to respect the sincere convictions of believers (of all faiths) and to encourage and support the many contributions the faith community makes in our city and state.
So, can anyone help determine: Is Jorge Elorza an atheist or not? It would be good to know before Election Day.”
For a candidate looking to build Latino momentum having a Catholic Bishop raise questions about your commitment to the Church is not helpful.
The benefit for Cianci of getting the support of the public unions has already been highlighted, but the weakness is that the rest of City taxpayers may be concerned that Cianci and the unions have made unsavory deals which will further adversely impact the city of Providence’s fragile finances.
Elorza can score points beyond the East Side that Cianci’s wheeling and dealing with the public unions may ensure more financial chaos and tax increases.
The biggest issue for Elorza to exploit is to project an image one of energy, youth and new big ideas. The reality has been that up until today, Cianci has held serve on energy and vision. With all the national attention – NYT, Politico, New Yorker, Meet the Press, etc – it seems as if Cianci is everywhere.
Elorza needs to project a high-energy leader who has big ideas and can implement big ideas. Voters know that Cianci has a track record of accomplishments – even for a guy 73-years-old.
