Bishop: The Debate Debate
Friday, August 17, 2018
Brian Bishop, GoLocalProv Guest MINDSETTER™
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Matt Brown and Gina Raimondo
More debate has been spilled about debates lately than any other issue in the primary. Of course one can be cynical of the strategic import of decisions to debate or not by any candidates, but one can hardly say in this day and internet age that they require debates to know where the candidates stand. Whether somebody would have been the captain of the debate team in high school hardly qualifies them one way of the other for political office.
In fact, it sounds a bit like the schoolyard out there with people calling each other “cowards” and “liars”; and this reported at a far higher rate than any serious information on candidates. But it seems just as likely that the press with its holier than though attitude is really in the business of stirring up a dramatically uninteresting race rather than actually deliver some incisive contribution to the common cause.
Indeed, the debates I’ve seen organized in Rhode Island (and most other places) aren’t even debates. They are fora where the media preens as much as the candidates. Give me Lincoln Douglas or don’t bother to talk about ‘debates’.
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But of course, it is hardly true that anyone who cares doesn’t know quite a bit about the candidates already. Name an opponent of Gina Raimondo who thinks continuing the Chafee chartered dependency portal, UHIP, was a good idea. And exactly what difference does knowledge of what people say in response to the typical ‘have you stopped beating your wife’ questions make?
Everyone knows that Gina promised an investigation into 38 Studios. Howse that working out for you? Those of us who oppose taxpayer bonds for the Pawsox Stadium because it is not a public good – meaning something used in common - are maybe lucky. If she had followed through and given taxpayers a sense that, whether or not criminally, those who leeched off the 38 Studios deal were publicly embarrassed and reprimanded, the Pawsox might be getting ready for RI Taxpayers money instead of Massachusetts. Such an effort at truth-telling might indeed have combined with the silly rhetoric that the Pawsox Stadium would “pay for itself” to have completed the forced march to this latest corporatist scheme. Instead, people wisely doubted the veracity of those claims.
And then Allan Fung, cornered at one of these forums with Ken Block the last election cycle and stung by criticism that he was too cozy with public unions in Cranston announced his support for Right to Work. Of course, who can be against such a thing, except the unions. Thus was squandered the opportunity that he had to curry favor with union voters upset by Raimondo’s efforts to accomplish unilateral changes to state pensions. But it would have simply been preferable if Allan Fung had walked a harder line with city unions and had thus not teed up the question of whether he bought labor peace with tax dollars. In any event, this kind of revelation was just as likely with campaign ads and rhetoric as debate.
Of course, those running behind want a debate, but when Ken Block got one, it didn’t much advance his run but it was probably amongst the factors that cost Allan Fung the general election. So he’s seen that movie before, why pay to see it again . . . ?
Ditto on the Democratic side. In a close three-way race, Raimondo did debate last cycle. But the debate was probably far less important to the race than the positioning. Two candidates ran left and Raimondo in the wake of pension reform was touting economic chops that looked a bit centrist (as my otherwise antagonist Frymaster at RI Future agreed).
She again has two candidates to her left, but it wouldn’t be a close race even with just one. Much as I respect Spencer Dickinson’s insistence that he wouldn’t budget to pay 38 Studios bonds that were never guaranteed by the state, it’s meaningless because the legislature would just put the money back. But he won’t win the primary anyway, not because of the lack of debate, but just the perception of relative heft and outsider status. Sure, being seen on the same stage with Governor Gina confers some small measure of antidote to that, with the emphasis on small.
Bob Healey spent a lifetime at it just so he could be a serious also-ran instead of a laughing stock. And it was the denouement of that career that least impressed me, although I think it was labor -- the robust support of the trades for Gina even while lackluster and indecision ruled in the public employee unions -- and not moose hunting that elected Raimondo the last time.
Fine, the quartet of also-ran characters can run around calling their opponents cowards, but where does Joe Trillo get off doing that. Why doesn’t someone ask Joe Trillo why he was too much of a coward to run in the Republican primary? Seems to me, he just wants the also-rans to soften up the primary target so he can further weaken Allan Fung in the general election which appears to be his raison d’etre in running since he also has little chance of winning.
There is nothing wrong with having a platform and running, but there is a head in the sand quality when one doesn’t concede what the likely outcome of their candidacy on the race is. But Trillo is, of course, what the press finds missing in this race, a bombastic character with ideas. My problem is I’m not particularly fond of his ideas. I saw him quite capably carry water for Deepwater Wind and National Grid who have opened permanent IVs into ratepayers wallets. So yes, he knows some things, but it's funny where that knowledge conveniently stops in order to support the position he is taking at the time.
No, I don’t love any of the candidates for Governor and fall amongst those whose preference, as for many in the last election, is someone different than who we’ve got. I’ll spend my time thinking who that could actually be and not debating debates.
Brian Bishop is on the board of OSTPA and has spent 20 years of activism protecting property rights, over-regulation and perverse incentives in tax policy.
Related Slideshow: GoLocal Statewide Poll - Conducted by Harvard’s Della Volpe - June, 2018
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Registered Voters
Q1: Are you registered to vote in Rhode Island?
Total 501 100%
Yes: 501 100%
No: 0 0%
Don't know: 0 0%
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Age
Q3: In which age group are you?
18-24: 7%
25-34: 16%
35-44: 15%
45-54: 20%
55-64: 17%
65+ 25%
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Political Party
Q4: When it comes to voting, do you consider yourself to be affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Moderate, or Unaffiliated with a major party?
Democrat: 38%
Republican:14%
Moderate: 6%
Unaffiliated: 39%
Don't know/Refused: 3%
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Likely Voters
Q5: Next year, in November of 2018, there will be a statewide general election for Governor and many other state offices. How likely is it that you will vote in this election? Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50...
Definitely be voting.............................. 81%
Probably be voting............................... 19%
All others............................................. 0%
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Top Issue
Q6: What would you say is the number one problem facing Rhode Island that you would like the Governor to address?
Taxes.................................................. .18%
Jobs and economy.............................. 16%
State budget.........................................11%
Roads...................................................10%
Education............................................ 8%
Healthcare........................................... 5%
Corruption/Public integrity.................... 4%
Immigration.......................................... 4%
Housing.............................................. ..2%
Governor............................................. ..2%
Homelessness.......................................1%
Other.. ............................................... 14%
Don’t know.......................................... 6%
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Direction
Q7: In general, would you say things in Rhode Island are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
Right track........................................... 19%
Wrong track......................................... 36%
Mixed.................................................. 45%
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Optimism
Q8: Thinking ahead several years, is your outlook about Rhode Island more optimistic or more pessimistic?
Optimistic............................................ 52%
Pessimistic...........................................48%
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Finances
Q9: Over the last three years or so, has your family's financial situation improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?
Changed for the better......................... 24%
Changed for the worse......................... 33%
Not changed at all................................ 43%
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Governor
Q10: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for her: 9%
There is a good chance I will vote for her: 19%
It is possible that I vote for her: 24%
It is unlikely that I will vote for her: 18%
I will never vote for her: 31%
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Governor
Q11: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Matt Brown, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 4%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 8%
It is possible that I vote for him: 40%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 30%
I will never vote for him: 17%
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Governor
Q12: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Spencer Dickinson, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 7%
It is possible that I vote for him: 37%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 35%
I will never vote for him: 18%
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Governor
Q13: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Paul Roselli, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 2%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 7%
It is possible that I vote for him: 35%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 37%
I will never vote for him: 19%
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Governor
Q14: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Allan Fung, a Republican
I am sure to vote for him: 7%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 18%
It is possible that I vote for him: 28%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 25%
I will never vote for him: 21%
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Governor
Q15: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Patricia Morgan, a Republican
I am sure to vote for her: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for her.: 9%
It is possible that I vote for her: 32%
It is unlikely that I will vote for her: 35%
I will never vote for her: 21%
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Governor
Q16: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Giovanni Feroce, a Republican
I am sure to vote for him: 2%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 5%
It is possible that I vote for him: 24%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 35%
I will never vote for him: 34%
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Governor
Q17: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Luis-Daniel Muñoz, an Independent
I am sure to vote for him: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 6%
It is possible that I vote for him: 33%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 38%
I will never vote for him: 21%
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Governor
Q18: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Joe Trillo, an Independent
I am sure to vote for him: 1%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 8%
It is possible that I vote for him: 37%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 34%
I will never vote for him: 19%
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Governor
Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 33%
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 33%
Joe Trillo, and Independent.................. 16%
Don't know 18%
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Governor
Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 39%
Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%
Joe Trillo, an Independent................... 19%
Don't know ......................................... 22%
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Governor
Q21: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 35%
Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 25%
Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 14%
Don't know .......................................... 27%
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Governor
Q22: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 30%
Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%
Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 18%
Don't know .......................................... 33%
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U.S. Senate
Q23: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Nardolillo - for whom would you vote?
Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........... 53%
Robert 'Bobby' Nardolillo, a Republican.. 31%
Don't know............................................... 16%
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U.S. Senate
Q24: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Flanders - for whom would you vote?
Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........ 54%
Robert Flanders, a Republican............. 32%
Don't know.......................................... 14%
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Schools
Q25: If there was an election today, would you vote to approve or reject issuing $250 million in financing supported general obligation bonds to repair Rhode Island's deteriorating school buildings and bring them up to minimum standards called "warm, safe and dry"?
Net: Approve...................................... 74%
Definitely approve............................... 36%
Probably approve................................ 38%
Net: Reject......................................... 17%
Probably reject.................................... 9%
Definitely reject.................................... 7%
Don't know.......................................... 9%
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PawSox
Q26: The Rhode Island General Assembly is in the process of negotiating a $40 million public financing deal with the Pawtucket Red Sox for a new stadium, hoping to bring a vote before the House and Senate this summer.
In general, do you favor or oppose the use of public funds to help finance a new stadium for the Pawtucket Red Sox?
Net: Favor.......................................... 33%
Strongly favor...................................... 13%
Somewhat favor.................................. 21%
Net: Oppose....................................... 59%
Somewhat oppose.............................. 21%
Strongly oppose.................................. 38%
Don't know.......................................... 8%
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Fane Tower
Q27: The City of Providence and the state of Rhode Island are considering a proposal by New York developer Jason Fane to build a 46-story luxury residence tower in Providence, next to a public riverfront park. The developer will invest $250 to $300 million of his own funds. The project is called the Hope Point Tower, it would be 170-feet taller than the Superman building and would require waiving height restrictions and the use of state tax credits.
In general, do you favor or oppose development of the Hope Point Tower?
Net: Favor.......................................... 39%
Strongly favor...................................... 13%
Somewhat favor.................................. 27%
Net: Oppose....................................... 50%
Somewhat oppose.............................. 23%
Strongly oppose.................................. 27%
Don't know.......................................... 11%
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Elorza/Traffic Cameras
Q28: How would you rate the job that Mayor Jorge Elorza has done managing issues related to speed cameras in Providence?
Net: Excellent/Good.......................... 26%
Excellent............................................. 6%
Good................................................... 20%
Net: Fair/Poor.................................... 74%
Fair...................................................... 29%
Poor.................................................... 45%
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Q29: Since it was launched in 2016, UHIP -- the Rhode Island program designed to improve customer service for those who receive federal benefits -- has run into significant problems, including long lines, cost overruns, lost applications, over- and under-charging of patients and families.
Based on what you know at this time, what percent of blame for this do you assign to:
Deloitte, the consulting company who
produced the system........................... 53.3%
Governor Gina Raimondo, who has
been governor since the system
launch in September 2016................... 47.1%
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NIMBYism
Q30: Presently, there are local groups opposing the development of a natural gas facility in Burrillville, solar projects in Exeter, a LNG facility in Providence and wind projects in North Kingstown.
Some people say that it is important for local groups to play a role in opposition of projects like these that could be dangerous or harmful to citizens;
Others say that local groups have gone too far to the detriment of the state’s long-term energy needs.
Which statement comes closer to your own view?
Local groups play an important role...... 46%
Local groups have gone too far............. 31%
Not sure................................................. 24%
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Corruption
Q31: Compared to other states, do you think there is:
More political corruption in RI................. 63%
Less political corruption in RI................ 7%
About the same level as other states..... 30%
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Income
Q32: The next question is about the total income of YOUR HOUSEHOLD for the PAST 12 MONTHS. Please include your income PLUS the income of all members living in your household (including cohabiting partners and armed forces members living at home).
$50,000 or less.................................... 33%
More $50,000 but less than $75,000..... 18%
More $75,000 but less than $100,000... 16%
More $100,000 but less than $150,000. 13%
$150,000 or more................................ 10%
Don't know/refused.............................. 10%
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Ethnicity
Q33: What particular ethnic group or nationality - such as English, French, Italian, Irish, Latino, Jewish, African American, and so forth - do you consider yourself a part of or feel closest to?
Net: White, Non-Hispanic..................... 82%
Black or African American.................... 6%
Latino/Hispanic.................................... 5%
Other.................................................... 7%
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Geography
Q34: City/Town Into Region.
West Bay............................................ 28%
Metro-Providence................................ 28%
Blackstone Valley................................ 21%
South County...................................... 10%
East Bay............................................. 13%
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