Will Labor Divide Spell Victory for Raimondo?
Friday, August 22, 2014
With Clay Pell and Angel Taveras locked in a statistical tie for second place behind Gina Raimondo among likely Democratic primary voters, will the chasm that has emerged between Pell and Taveras supporters within the state’s labor base have the unintended consequence of electing Raimondo as the Democratic nominee for Governor on September 9th?
"If you look at the polling released this week, it looks like my prediction from earlier this month is bearing out. I don't blame any teacher for being nervous about Angel Taveras being our governor, and I have a ton of respect for [NEARI Executive Director] Bob Walsh, but he is playing a dangerous game that may result in his worst nightmare coming true: Gina Raimondo becoming the next governor of Rhode Island," said RI Future Publisher, Bob Plain.
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Raimondo has been endorsed by the RI Building and Construction Trade Council as well as a number of unions representing different types of building and construction workers, while Pell has been endorsed by the National Education Association of Rhode Island (NEARI) and United Nurses and Allied Professionals (UNAP) as well as SEIU Local 401. Taveras has arguably the strongest union backing – with a number of the largest public and private unions in the state joining forces this week under the Working Families for Angel umbrella coalition. The coalition represents some 30,000 public and private sector workers.
Divide And Conquer
Union members in Rhode Island are now split evenly between Pell and Taveras, who each garnered 30.7% of the union vote in latest polling of likely Democratic primary voters, with 19.8% supporting Raimondo.
This represents a significant change from previous polling conducted in May when Pell (14.1%) trailed behind both Taveras (37.4%) and Raimondo (21.2%) among union voters. Additionally, the data shows that while Raimondo’s union support has remained within the margin of error of where it was three months ago, Pell has picked up considerable union support from those who were either backing Taveras or undecided in May.
Overall, Raimondo has taken the lead among likely Democratic primary voters, with a plurality (32%) saying they would vote for her if the primary were held today. Taveras and Pell are in a statistical tie for second place in the horserace – with 27% and 26% of the vote respectively.
“Divide and conquer is a time-honored political strategy, but by failing to unite behind a specific candidate, labor diminishes its overall influence and makes it difficult to produce a primary victory for a labor-supported candidate," said Brookings Institution Vice President and Director of Government Studies Darrel West. "It is possible that the union split between Pell and Taveras will produce a Raimondo victory."
Is Pell a Spoiler?
SEIU Local 580 President Phil Keefe provided his perspective on the growing divide that has emerged this election season between the unions who have endorsed Taveras and those who are supporting Pell.
“What we have is a situation where we have a bunch of unions involved and we are all split. SEIU Local 580 is proud to be part of the coalition of unions who have endorsed Angel Taveras, but we have certain unions backing Pell. And by being split, what could happen unintentionally is that she [Gina Raimondo] sneaks in,” said Keefe.
“I think Pell is a spoiler. I think that any vote that goes to him is a vote against Taveras," Keefe continued. "The ironic thing is that one of Pell’s commercial says that he takes no money from PACs or special interests when the only reason that he is a serious contender is that one union is spending an enormous amount of effort to get him elected. If Raimondo gets elected governor I can absolutely guarantee you that the backlash against those organizations that backed Pell is going to be immense,” said Keefe.
Labor Divided
"It is not unusual for labor to be divided in Democratic primaries. There is considerable variety in the labor movement and not all unions have the same perspective or viewpoints. There are differences based on white versus blue-collar unions and variations across economic sectors. These factors often lead unions to support different candidates,” said West.
The timing of the decisions to make endorsements had a role in determining where labor lined up.
"The UNAP is proud to be the first labor organization to endorse Clay Pell's gubernatorial campaign. We did this after careful review and consideration of the candidates platforms and records," said Linda McDonald, RN, president, United Nurses and Allied Professional.
Similarly, RI Council 94 AFSCME’s decision to endorse Taveras was made during a vote held by its Political Action Committee, according to Council 94 President J. Michael Downey.
“Our process at Council 94 is not to ask all the other unions who they support for governor but to send out questionnaires to all the candidates,” said Downey.
Keefe spoke to the issue of whether any attempts had been made by the Working Families for Angel union leaders to get the teachers and nurses unions to join them.
“By the time the Working Families for Angel coalition was formed those two groups [NEARI and UNAP] had already decided that they were backing Pell. A decision was made that it would make no sense to try to get them on board,” said Keefe.
Despite the palpable division, some unions leaders have stepped forth to express their hope that after the primary, that all of labor is on the same page -- for a Democrat.
“I certainly hope that all of the unions will ultimately get behind whoever the democratic nominee is and work together to make sure a Democrat is elected Governor in November,” said RI Business and Construction Trades Council (RI BCTC) President, Michael Sabitoni.
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