RI Governor’s Race is Now a Complete Toss-Up
Thursday, March 08, 2018
Welcome to political chaos in 2018. The Governor’s race in Rhode Island last week looked to give the nod to Governor Gina Raimondo, but the race has now turned into the wild, wild west.
The race, which was already complex with primaries on both sides and multiple independent candidates, just got a lot more unpredictable with an unlikely addition of former Rhode Island Secretary of State Matt Brown. He is currently looking to run as an independent -- and would run to the left of Raimondo if she wins the Democratic primary.
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“All these people wanting to run for Governor are probably inspired by the late Bob Healey who spent $10 and got 21 percent! But Joe Trillo’s low numbers in the latest poll indicate the difficulty of an independent bid,” said former Governor Lincoln Chafee — a potential 2018 candidate.
“We’ll see what happens. When I announced for Governor in 2010, there were four well-known candidates in the Democratic primary- Caprio, Roberts, Lynch and Cicilline -- [and] when the dust cleared it was only Caprio,” said Chafee.
He was referring to then-General Treasurer Frank Caprio, then-Lt. Governor Liz Roberts, then-Attorney General Patrick Lynch, and then-Providence Mayor David Cicilline.
Complete Reset
The announcement by Brown that he will enter the race is a nightmare scenario for Raimondo. First, it is unknown if Chafee will primary her in on the Democratic side. That would be the second potential recalibration of the race. Chafee has high name recognition and can self-fund millions into the race. Chafee does have a bit of baggage too — from Christmas Trees to the metric system.
“The entrance of Matt Brown certainly shifts the playing field. Known as a strong progressive, Brown's entrance could either pull those strongly on the left away from Gov. Gina Raimondo's base or force her to position herself as slightly more liberal than she's been,” said Kay Israel, Professor Emeritus at Rhode Island College.
“Brown's candidacy gives those who might previously been left with the choice of voting for the Governor or staying home, the option to indicate their view through a protest vote for the former Secretary of State. If Raimondo can demonstrate her progressive bonafides she could blunt Brown's appeal,” said Israel.
Political Professor of Politics at American University -- and GoLocal LIVE regular -- Jennifer Lawless said the Democrats might see the situation for what it is, however -- and act accordingly.
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“As for Brown’s candidacy affecting the broader dynamics of the race, his entry means that Raimondo can win with an even smaller share of the vote. Brown might attract progressive Democrats, but if Democrats – including those progressives – are concerned that Brown’s candidacy could be a spoiler that results in a Republican governor, then they’re likely to support Raimondo,” said Lawless.
Wild Card Factor of Third Party Candidates
Just as Moderate Party candidate, the late-Bob Healey, ruined GOP candidate Allan Fung’s chance to be Governor in 2014 by taking a surprising 22 percent of the vote, more often than not historically voters shift back to traditional party candidates once in the voter’s booth.
“The more independent candidates, the less predictable the election becomes. It often is unclear all the way to the end of the campaign how independent candidates will run. Even if [independent candidates] poll at 10 percent a month before the election, it rarely is clear if they will hold that number or drop down to a few percentage points,’ said Darrell West, Vice President at the Brookings Institute.
“There also is uncertainty over who they will hurt the most in terms of voter support. Independent candidates often straddle party lines so it is hard to ascertain whether they draw more from the Democratic or Republican nominee. Some of the biggest surprises have come in races with independent candidates because their support can move substantially in the closing weeks of the campaign,” said West.
Unpredictability may be the most predictable factor in this race.
“So, yes, the race has changed and it's significantly more unpredictable as the variables that used to be significant are losing their power. Less TV watching and print reading result in less audience and limited reach. Republican turnout is usually higher in off-year elections, but this year we have the Trump frustration consuming many Rhode Islanders. Around the country we've seen Democratic turnout energized and Republican numbers waning. Brown's entrance changes things, but it's those other changing factors that will be far more influential in this election year,” said RIC's Israel.
Lawless said she is not optimistic about Brown's potential entrance.
“I don’t see a path to victory for Brown, especially if he’s not the only independent in the race. Even though people are sick and tired of partisanship, polarization, and gridlock, the reality is that most voters still cast partisan votes (and unaffiliated voters in RI who typically vote Democratic or Republican will continue to do so). Of course, there have been exceptions – Chafee is among them. But Brown has neither the name recognition, approval rating, or political capital that Chafee did when he first ran for governor,” said Lawless
Raimondo’s Organization
While the political table has been flipped, Raimondo still has the significant advantage in organization and financial resources. Some challengers whisper that Hillary Clinton had the same advantages in the 2016 Presidential campaign, but don’t want to say it publicly for fear of being tapped as sexist.
“Elections are often won by intelligent planning. The Governor has the financial resources to get her message out and isn't likely to have an expensive primary battle. On the other hand, the Republicans have at least two viable contenders who can cost the other both votes and dollars. The presence of a 'Trump' independent candidate, Joe Trillo, doesn't aid the Republican situation,” said Israel.
Raimondo has been a fundraising juggernaut, out-fundraising Fung and fellow GOP challenger Patricia Morgan by more than ten-to-one. Raimondo raised $570,000 for the fourth quarter of 2017 and has more than $3.3 million on hand.
Brown, who has a national network from working in Washington, D.C., is unlikely to match Raimondo fundraising levels, but could leverage his Bernie Sanders' message and run a very competitive small donor campaign from younger progressives — both in Rhode Island and nationally.
One thing is for sure, Brown's entrance into the Governor's race changed everything.
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