RI Ranked 4th Most Affected State by Repeal of Obamacare

Thursday, January 26, 2017
GoLocalProv News Team

Rhode Island will be the fourth most adversely affected state if the GOP plan to repeal of the Affordable Care Act goes forward, according to a recent study done by WalletHub. 

This is the second piece of potentially bad news for Rhode Island coming out of Washington. As GoLocal reported on Wednesday morning that the Trump Administration did not include any Rhode Island projects among the 50 major infrastructure included in the plan, "Rhode Island may have among the worst bridges and roads in America, but the initial $137 billion infrastructure project list from the Trump Administration does not include Rhode Island."

"Since former President Barack Obama’s signature health-care legislation — more popularly known as “Obamacare” — was passed in 2010, more than 20 million individuals have gained insurance coverage, resulting in the lowest uninsured rate in history by early 2016. Reversal of the law is expected to raise the uninsured rate by an estimated 18 million in the first plan year following repeal, then 32 million by 2026, according to official estimates," said WalletHub.

RI is projected to have second highest growth in uncompensated care costs in 2021. 

The Rankings 

The top five most affected states are as follows: 

1. Massachusetts 

2. West Virginia 

3. Kentucky 

4. Rhode Island 

5. Oregon

See the full rankings in the map below. 

Source: WalletHub

The Method 

In order to assess the impact of the ACA’s repeal at the state level, WalletHub’s analysts compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across seven key metrics. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the most negative outcome for the state.

WalletHub then calculated the overall score for each state and the District using its weighted average across all metrics and constructed our final ranking based on the resulting scores.

  • Growth in Uninsured Population by 2019 Post-ACA Repeal: Double Weight (~23.53 Points)
  • Growth in Uninsured Population in 2021 (ACA Effective vs. Repealed): Double Weight (~23.53 Points)
  • Presence of Planned Parenthood Funding: Half Weight (~5.88 Points)
  • Potential Jobs Lost Due to Repeal of Tax Credits & Medicaid Expansion in 2019: Full Weight (~11.76 Points)
  • Potential Economic Impact Due to Repeal of Premium Tax Credits & Medicaid Expansion (2019 to 2023): Full Weight (~11.76 Points)
  • Growth in Uncompensated Care Costs in 2021 (ACA Effective vs. Repealed): Full Weight (~11.76 Points)
  • Share of Young Adults with Health-Insurance Coverage: Full Weight (~11.76 Points)
  • Jennifer Duffy

    Cook Report

    "We don't really know what a Trump presidency means for the nation, never mind the smallest state.  One of the unintended consequences of last night's results is that Sen. Jack Reed won't be chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.  Chalk that up as a loss for RI."

  • Pam Gencarella

    Head of Ocean State Taxpayers' Association

    "Trump’s win means that his signature issue, illegal immigration, could have a big impact on RI, hopefully reversing our course as a sanctuary state and saving the state taxpayer millions of dollars.  While we agree with his 'repeal and replace' Obamacare stance, we have no idea what that means to the RI debacle known as UHIP.  It is not a stretch to believe that federal funding for this kind of system will be off the table so, will RI be stuck with this massively expensive system that still doesn’t work and that is expected to cost another $124 million to fix?  

    Trump's belief that there is significant fraud in the Food Stamp program and the policies that may come from that belief could have a negative impact on RI's local economy since there are businesses in certain cities that rely heavily on this program, fraud and all. On the upside, we may be able to ditch the UHIP program if there is significantly less need for processing welfare program requests (ie. Medicaid and food stamps) resulting from fewer illegal immigrants and less fraud.  While we are ambivalent about his touted child care policies, if enacted, it may force our legislators to revisit the ever growing state cost of subsidies in this area and possibly reduce the fraud and abuse in this system." 

  • Kay Israel

    Professor at Rhode Island College

    "With a Republican President and Congress, Rhode Island will probably be excluded from the 'fruits of victory."  

    The congressional delegation will be able to vocally make their presence felt, but in the long term it's more symbolic than substantive.  

    For Rhode Island it's a matter of holding on and waiting until '18 or '20 and a surge in Democratic influence."

  • Jennifer Lawless

    Professor at American University

    "The RI congressional delegation just became even less powerful than it was. With unified government, Trump doesn’t need to quell Democrats’ concerns or acquiesce because he’s worried about a Democratically-controlled Senate.

    His appointments will reflect that. His executive orders will affect that. And the conservative policy agenda he puts forward will affect that."

  • Len Lardaro

    Professor at University of Rhode Island

    "Well there's a few things -- because there's not going to be gridlock, that's a big difference if it had been Hillary and a GOP Congress, in which nothing would got done. We'll at least get a half a billion in infrastructure that's going to pass which will have an impact.

    I think you'll see there will be reduced reliance on government nationally -- and that's where we'll stick out like sore thumb. We've relied way too much on government -- and our government is highly inefficient and ineffective.  Maybe, just maybe, in this who cycle of things we might be forced to be small and more efficient for once.

    A couple of other things -- interest rates jumped. The one to follow is the ten year government bond rate -- which is tied to mortgages. It went from 1.7% to 2.05% in one day. The point is -- if the ten year stays high, mortgage rates will start going higher -- and in the short time people will run to re-finance. 

    That's the short term impact -- but then if rates stay hight, that will make mortgages more out of reach. And we just passed a bond issue to limit open space -- housing has limited upside here.
    The next thing -- the Fed Reserve will go ahead with tightening next month. A strong dollar will hurt manufacturing. When the dollar is strong our exports become more expensive overseas. 

    Our goods production sector -- manufacturing and construction -- in the near term will do a little better, but as time goes on will be more limited. But something you won't hear, is there are lags in fiscal policy, of six months to year. So we won't really see the effects until the third our fourth quarter of 2017, going into 2018."

  • Mike Stenhouse

    RI Center for Freedon and Prosperity

    "As the unbelievable turned into reality this morning, it struck me that the presidential election was not really all about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It was about a fed-up people, revolting against a corrupt system - the "beast" - that relentlessly favors insiders. Hillary personified the beast, while Donald personified the slayer.

    Sadly, based on election results in our state, Rhode Island's version of the beast lives on. I fear our political class has not learned the lessons from the Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump movements - and will continue with their government-centric, anti-family, anti-business status quo."

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